Crafting is officially garbage in POE

Reliability is irrelevant; average cost is the key factor. At the end of the day what really matters is that the average 6L costs roughly 1k Fusings, the mean... not how large the standard deviation is.

All nonrandomness does is lead to hoarding/splurging cycles. With zero RNG and same mean, every Fusing is 0.1% on a progress bar (hoarding) then you hit 1k and you dump them all for a 6Ll (splurge). RNG actually disincentivizes hoarding because the first Fuse is just as likely to succeed as the 500th.

And hoarding leads to rich get richer, poor get poorer. No RNG, and only the 1k+ Fusing club have 6L, everyone else is SOL. At least with RNG some of the poor luck out and get that 6L. RNG is not a detriment, but a benefit for the casual player who hopes to possibly overtake the devoted no-lifer; without RNG, it's impossible.

RNG is fucking awesome. Stop disparaging it.

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ScrotieMcB escribió:

Reliability is irrelevant;

False, which makes the rest of your post trash

Reliability is irrelevant until you take into account psychology and the fact humans are humans. I am never ever going to spend currency orbs/fusings getting 5/6L on my items as long as RNG exists for fusings and orbs, its that simple

Stop discounting RNG, or at least admit your an RNG junkie

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deteego escribió:

I think the point is that these players are not reflective of the player base in general.

How can you know that?

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deteego escribió:

They wanted godly gear to be near unattainable is their main reason iirc

I'd believe you if you had a source for that. I haven't seen anything of the sort to suggest this with respect to their decision to make crafting based on random rolls instead of fixed costs.

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My final point here, is there is a big difference between theory and practice. Obviously GGG thought hard about it, but practice and theory are 2 different beasts, and the former rarely leads to the latter, and when it does, it often brings drastic side effects.

Things don't work out precisely as theory would dictate, but there is really no other way to reason about a system and predict how it will behave.

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One even has to ask the merit of making end game gear unattainable in something like standard league as something thats worth trying to do, given the drastic side effects that such a goal brings

Could you clarify what you mean by "end game," and "unattainable?" Very weak gear can get you pretty far into the mapping process. I am not going to speculate as to whether you mean tip-top mirror-worthy gear, or gear that can clear lv72 maps solo, or lv77 maps in a party, or lv77 maps with the most hostile possible mods solo. These are drastically different cases. Also, there is tip-top gear on the server, so it is definitely *attainable.*

I apologize for appearing picky about terminology, but I think it's best to avoid subjective terms if you want to have meaningful discussion.

One of the key facets of min/maxing is to overcome superstition and look at situations with a scientific eye. In min/maxing probability-based events this means overcoming an irrational fear of variance and instead acting upon expected values and averages.

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ScrotieMcB escribió:

One of the key facets of min/maxing is to overcome superstition and look at situations with a scientific eye. In min/maxing probability-based events this means overcoming an irrational fear of variance and instead acting upon expected values and averages.

In terms of economics, your statement about RNG is trash. In terms of psychology, your statement about RNG is trash

Do I need to continue further? Get back to us when you stop discounting RNG, because its like trying to diagnose cancer with the assumption that cells don't exist or are irrelevant

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ScrotieMcB escribió:

Reliability is irrelevant; average cost is the key factor. At the end of the day what really matters is that the average 6L costs roughly 1k Fusings, the mean... not how large the standard deviation is.

All nonrandomness does is lead to hoarding/splurging cycles. With zero RNG and same mean, every Fusing is 0.1% on a progress bar (hoarding) then you hit 1k and you dump them all for a 6Ll (splurge). RNG actually disincentivizes hoarding because the first Fuse is just as likely to succeed as the 500th.

And hoarding leads to rich get richer, poor get poorer. No RNG, and only the 1k+ Fusing club have 6L, everyone else is SOL. At least with RNG some of the poor luck out and get that 6L. RNG is not a detriment, but a benefit for the casual player who hopes to possibly overtake the devoted no-lifer; without RNG, it's impossible.

RNG is fucking awesome. Stop disparaging it.

I think this coincides with what I expect would happen. If you had fixed no-RNG costs, they would turn out to be very high and probably discouraging to the poorer players, who might then stop playing.

I expect that is also, to an extent, why GGG doesn't reveal the fusing odds. They don't want to put out a number like 1k (say, for sake of argument, it is actually 1k) to have someone ragequit when their 1001st fusing fails, and they probably don't want a casual player with only 50-or-so fusings to get overwhelmed.

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syrioforel escribió:

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deteego escribió:

I think the point is that these players are not reflective of the player base in general.

How can you know that?

The amount of times people complain about the RNG of Jewellers/Fusings versus the amount of people that support it is massive (hint: many more people complain about the RNG rather than support it)

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deteego escribió:

They wanted godly gear to be near unattainable is their main reason iirc

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syrioforel escribió:

I'd believe you if you had a source for that. I haven't seen anything of the sort to suggest this with respect to their decision to make crafting based on random rolls instead of fixed costs.

A lot of these things are in the manifesto, which GGG decided to take down for whatever reason. Other things you have to track manually through reddit

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syrioforel escribió:

Could you clarify what you mean by "end game," and "unattainable?" Very weak gear can get you pretty far into the mapping process. I am not going to speculate as to whether you mean tip-top mirror-worthy gear, or gear that can clear lv72 maps solo, or lv77 maps in a party, or lv77 maps with the most hostile possible mods solo. These are drastically different cases. Also, there is tip-top gear on the server, so it is definitely *attainable.*

I am talking about making tip top mirror gear unattainable

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ScrotieMcB escribió:

One of the key facets of min/maxing is to overcome superstition and look at situations with a scientific eye. In min/maxing probability-based events this means overcoming an irrational fear of variance and instead acting upon expected values and averages.

Risk averse behavior isn't always irrational; risk seeking behavior isn't always irrational either.

However, I would agree that it is important to understand the expectation and variance, then make your decisions based on that data.

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The amount of times people complain about the RNG of Jewellers/Fusings versus the amount of people that support it is massive (hint: many more people complain about the RNG rather than support it)

That's not good evidence. The people who strongly dislike the crafting RNG may just be more vocal about it. Some small portion of the player base might really hate the RNG, and most of the players might have a neutral to positive opinion about it.

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deteego escribió:

A lot of these things are in the manifesto, which GGG decided to take down for whatever reason. Other things you have to track manually through reddit

If you make the claim that it exists, it is up to you to find it. You can't expect me (or anyone else) to go searching for something that might not exist just because you say it does.

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syrioforel escribió:

Could you clarify what you mean by "end game," and "unattainable?" Very weak gear can get you pretty far into the mapping process. I am not going to speculate as to whether you mean tip-top mirror-worthy gear, or gear that can clear lv72 maps solo, or lv77 maps in a party, or lv77 maps with the most hostile possible mods solo. These are drastically different cases. Also, there is tip-top gear on the server, so it is definitely *attainable.*

I am talking about making tip top mirror gear unattainable

Well, you answered half the question I asked, but not the other half. I don't think tip-top mirror gear is something that everyone should necessarily have. Once a character has tip-top gear, it can't progress much more (beyond leveling).

I might put forward that the fun of the game lies in progression - both character level and gear progression. Under that hypothesis, if gear progression becomes too easy, people may play less.

There are players who no-life the game, and they are the players that are trying to craft that tip-top gear. They have more time invested in the game than any other players, so their characters and stashes should, on the whole, be better off than other players. If the game is to remain interesting to that subset of the player pool, then some aspects of the game will end up being relatively inaccessible to players who, to put it bluntly, put only a responsible amount of time into the game ("casual", for lack of a better term, even if that means 40+ hours a week.)

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syrioforel escribió:

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The amount of times people complain about the RNG of Jewellers/Fusings versus the amount of people that support it is massive (hint: many more people complain about the RNG rather than support it)

That's not good evidence. The people strongly dislike the crafting RNG may just be more vocal about it. Some small portion of the player base might really hate the RNG, and most of the players might have a neutral to positive opinion about it.

Its better evidence than the counter evidence

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syrioforel escribió:

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deteego escribió:

A lot of these things are in the manifesto, which GGG decided to take down for whatever reason. Other things you have to track manually through reddit

If you make the claim that it exists, it is up to you to find it. You can't expect me (or anyone else) to go searching for something that might not exist just because you say it does.

And this falls apart when the evidence is removed, which is what GGG did

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syrioforel escribió:

I might put forward that the fun of the game lies in progression - both character level and gear progression. Under that hypothesis, if gear progression becomes too easy, people may play less.

No one is arguing for it to be easy

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syrioforel escribió:

There are players who no-life the game, and they are the players that are trying to craft that tip-top gear. They have more time invested in the game than any other players, so their characters and stashes should, on the whole, be better off than other players. If the game is to remain interesting to that subset of the player pool, then some aspects of the game will end up being relatively inaccessible to players who, to put it bluntly, put only a responsible amount of time into the game ("casual", for lack of a better term, even if that means 40+ hours a week.)

This is irrelevant to the point being discussed. We are talking about mid range gamers, not no life gamers